Josh's Law for predicting political outcomes:

Assume the worst-case scenario. You will always be rewarded, either with the satisfaction of being right, or the pleasant surprise of exceeded expectations. Usually the former.

Example 1. John Kerry will be the Democratic Party nominee for presidential candidate.

As a bonus: Josh's Law for evaluating conspiracy theories: Assume stupidity until malevolence can be established. Even when it can, you'll rarely have cause to regret the stupidity assumption.

Example 2. The (second) Bush administration: both stupid and evil.